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Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 3/12/2021

Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 100 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 5,100 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 5,200 contracts.

The decline in total net positions occurred in all other currencies tracked except the Japanese yen, which bounced off the bottom in an environment of risk-off sentiment.

Speculators' positions in the yen have been negative since March 2021, when contracts fell into negative territory. Bearish sentiment reached a short-term high just five weeks ago on November 2, when speculators' total net positions fell to a total of -107,600 contracts. Since that week, sentiment in the Japanese yen has improved by a total of +28,758 contracts.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.
 

 

3/12/2021

26/11/2021

19/11/2021

12/11/2021

5/11/2021

29/10/2021

USD index

35,900

35,800

34,900

35,400

35,000

34,500

EUR

-23,200

-16,500

-3,800

3,800

-6,100

-11,300

GBP

-38,900

-34,600

-31,600

-12,100

15,000

15,000

AUD

-80,200

-63,300

-61,200

-63,400

-75,500

-75,200

NZD

10,600

13,900

14,000

12,900

13,900

8,900

CAD

-14,100

-3,100

8,700

-5,100

4,200

3,300

CHF

-14,200

-11,400

-8,900

-17,000

-20,600

-19,400

JPY

-78,900

-97,300

-93,100

-105,400

-107,600

-107,000

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

The Euro

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

3/12/2021 -6,300 -6,700 -13,200 -6,500 Bearish
26/11/2021 6,000 -12,700 6,000 18,700 Bearish
19/11/2021 27,300 -7,600 5,600 13,200 Bearish
 
COT-22-10-obr-1.png
Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1
 

Total net speculator positions fell by 6,700 contracts last week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 13,200 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 6,500 contracts.

The euro moved in a sideways range last week. Overall, however, the pair is still in a downtrend with resistance at the downward sloping trend line.

Long-term resistance: 1.1350 - 1.1370
Long-term support: 1.1150 - 1.1180

 

The British pound

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

3/12/2021 17,100 -4,300 2,000 6,300 Bearish
26/11/2021 6,200 -3,000 -300 2,700 Bearish
19/11/2021 20,200 -19,500 -3,600 15,900 Bearish

 

COT-22-10-obr-2.png
Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1
 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators fell by 4,300 contracts. This increase in total net positions over the past week is the result of a 2,000 contract increase in long positions and a 6,300 contract increase in short positions.

The pound has been falling over the past week, confirming the continued down trend. However, the price is now at the support  level at 1.3200.

Long-term resistance: 1.3350-1.3360
Long-term support: 1.3150-1.3210

 

 

The Australian dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

3/12/2021 300 -16,900 -7,300 9,600 Bearish
26/11/2021 21,300 -2,100 9,800 11,900 Bearish
19/11/2021 9,400 2,200 6,900 4,700 Weakening bearish
 
COT-22-10-obr-3.png
Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1
 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators fell by 16,900 contracts. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,300 contracts and an increase in short positions by 9,600 contracts.

The Australian dollar weakened strongly last week under the influence of risk-off sentiment brought about by the news of a new coronavirus variant. The AUDUSD broke support at 0.7160, which has now become resistance. Price is currently trading in the area of strong support at 0.7000.

Long-term resistance: 0.7100-0.7130
Long-term support: 0.6980-0.7000

 

The New Zealand dollar

 

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

3/12/2021 5,000 -3,300 2,600 5,900 Weakening bullish
26/11/2021 1,600 -100 1,400 1,500 Weakening bullish
19/11/2021 -500 1,100 1,100 0 Bullish

COT-22-10-obr-4.png
Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1
 

Last week, total net positions fell by 3,300 contracts. The change in total net positions is the result of an increase in long positions by 2,600 contracts and an increase in short positions by 5,900 contracts. 

The New Zealand dollar also weakened strongly last week in risk-off sentiment and broke through a strong support at 0.6800, which is now a new resistance.

Long-term resistance: 0.6800-0.6820
Long-term support: 0.6700

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