Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,355 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions of 3,794 contracts and an increase in short positions of 2,539 contracts.
There was a significant decrease in the total net positions of large speculators in the Canadian dollar last week, which fell by 22,690 contracts. At the same time, total net positions of large speculators moved from bullish to overall bearish sentiment for the first time in 10 weeks.
The rise in total net positions of large speculators occurred only in the euro last week. There was a decline in total net positions in the other currencies monitored.
The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.
Mar 22, 2022
Mar 15, 2022
Mar 08, 2022
Mar 01, 2022
Feb 22, 2022
Feb 15, 2022
Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.
Charts are made with the use of tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com
Specs Net positions
change Open Interest
change Net Positions
Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1
The total net positions of speculators reached 23,843 contracts last week, up by 5,049 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,011 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 38 contracts. These data suggest bullish sentiment for the euro.
Open interest fell by 7,193 contracts last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and is therefore a weak trend.
The euro continues to move in a downtrend. It returned to a resistance level last week, which could be an opportunity to trade short.
Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150.
Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0650-1.0700. The support can b also a value around 1.0900.
Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1
The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline.
Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong.
However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment.
Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300.
Support is near 1.3000.
Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1
The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 51,189 contracts, down by 6,333 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 534 contracts and an increase in short positions by 5,799 contracts. This data suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar.
Last week there was an increase in open interest of 3,246 contracts. This means that the upward move that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market.
The Australian dollar strengthened strongly again last week and reached a significant resistance level.
Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560
Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440. A strong support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.
Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1
The total net positions of speculators reached 2,520 contracts last week, down by 1,133 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 4,337 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 3,204 contracts. This data suggests that there was a weakening of bullish sentiment in the New Zealand dollar last week.
Open interest fell by 3,944 contracts last week. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak.
The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and reached the resistance level.
Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000
Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6920 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.
Strong bullish market
New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong.
Strong bearish market
Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong.
Weak bullish market
Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak.
Weak bearish market
Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.
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