67.90 % of retail investors lose their capital when trading CFDs with this provider.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.90 % of retail investors lose their capital when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/5/2021

The total net positions of speculators in the USD index fell by 600 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 1,800 contracts and a decrease in net short positions by 1,100 contracts.

 

The total net positions of speculators increased last week in the euro, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

 

The decline in the total net positions of speculators occurred in the pound.

 

There is still a risk on sentiment in the market as US stock indices hovering near their historic highs and the Dow Jones 30 setting a new historic high last week. In such environment, commodity currencies and the euro tend to strengthen.

 

In addition to that, the recent developments in the US dollar pairs have been determined by developments in the US long-term bond yields. They fell last week and the US dollar weakened. However, in the event of their further stronger growth, it cannot be ruled out that the dollar could start to strengthen again.

 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.

 

 

7/5/2021

30/4/2021

23/4/2021

16/4/2021

9/4/2021

2/4/2021

USD index

2,100

2,700

3,500

6,000

4,400

5,700

EUR

84,800

81,000

80,800

66,900

67,500

73,700

GBP

19,800

29,200

25,200

25,600

20,000

25,000

AUD

1,500

-1,400

-1,800

3,800

4,100

12,300

NZD

8,600

7,000

4,300

2,500

3,100

4,000

CAD

25,900

15,722

13,200

2,400

2,700

6,500

CHF

100

-700

-1,600

800

3,200

4,300

JPY

-41,500

-48,500

-59,800

-58,300

-58,000

-59,500

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

  • Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

  • Green linein the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

  • Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.
     

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

Euro

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

7.5.2021 5,300 3,800 6,000 2,200 Býčí
30.4.2021 10,400 200 3,300 3,100 Býčí
23.4.2021 13,000 13,900 6,500 -7,400 Býčí
 
COT-7-5-obr-1.png
Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


The total net positions of speculators grew by 3,800 contracts last week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 6,000 contracts and an increase in short positions by 2,200 contracts.

The price of the euro strengthened strongly last week and broke the declining line of resistance. After testing it back as a new support, we can expect a further strengthening of the euro against the dollar.

Long-term resistance: 1.2240 - 1.2350

Long-term support: 1.1700 - 1.1750
 

The British pound

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

7.5.2021 -8,500 -9,400 -7,700 1,700 Slábnoucí býčí
30.4.2021 -3,000 -4,000 -1,100 -5,100  Býčí
23.4.2021 15,500 -400 8,200 8,600 Slábnoucí býčí

 

COT-7-5-obr-2.png
Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, the total net position of speculators fell by 9,400 contracts. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 7,700 contracts, while net short positions increased by 1,700 contracts.

The pound strengthened strongly against the US dollar last week.

 

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

 

Long-term support: 1.3670-1.3700
 

The Australian dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

7.5.2021 -3,100 2,900 -1,400 -4,200 Býčí
30.4.2021 4,600 400 3,000 2,600 Slábnoucí medvědí
23.4.2021 -3,500 -5,600 -7,300 -1,700 Medvědí
 
COT-7-5-obr-3.png
Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, the total net positions of speculators grew by 2,900 contracts. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,400 and a decrease in short positions by 4,200 contracts.

The Australian dollar strengthened strongly last week in line with risk on sentiment and is currently in the resistance zone.

Long-term resistance: 0.7870-0.8000

 

Long-term support: 0.7530-0.7600
 

The New Zealand dollar

 

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

7.5.2021 400 1,600 500 -1,100 Býčí
30.4.2021 3,500 2,700 4,200 1,500 Býčí
23.4.2021 2,200 1,800 2,000 200 Býčí

COT-7-5-obr-4.png
Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions grew by 1,600 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in long contracts by 500 and a decrease in short contracts by 1,100.

The NZDUSD also strengthened strongly last week in line with risk on sentiment. The movement of the NZDUSD pair is also strongly correlated with the AUDUSD.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.6900-0.6960

 
67.90 % of retail investors lose their capital when trading CFDs with this provider.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.90 % of retail investors lose their capital when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.