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Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 28/5/2021

Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 100 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions of 350 contracts and an increase in short positions of 250 contracts.

 

The increase in speculators' total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

 

Decreases in speculators' total net positions occurred in the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.

 

Tuesday's rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia will have a big impact on the Australian dollar this week. Last week the New Zealand central bank decided on rates and the rate was left unchanged at 0.25%. The New Zealand dollar strengthened significantly after that. Given that the the AUD and the NZD are closely correlated and the Reserve Bank of Australia is not expected to change rates, it is possible that the AUD will strengthen this week.

 

The important report is on Friday when the US reports key employment data, the so-called NFP report.

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.

 

 

28/5/2021

21/5/2021

14/5/2021

7/5/2021

30/4/2021

23/4/2021

USD index

2,800

2,700

2,500

2,100

2,700

3,500

EUR

104,000

99,900

93,900

84,800

81,000

80,800

GBP

30,700

24,900

28,200

19,800

29,200

25,200

AUD

-800

3,000

2,400

1,500

-1,400

-1,800

NZD

8,600

8,400

9,300

8,600

7,000

4,300

CAD

44,800

46 100

38,600

25,900

15,722

13,200

CHF

-1,200

-4,300

-2,900

100

-700

-1,600

JPY

-50,200

-50,900

-41,700

-41,500

-48,500

-59,800

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

Euro

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

28/5/2021 10,500 4,100 3,800 -300 Bullish
21/5/2021 30,400 6,000 9,000 3,000 Bullish
14/5/2021 19,800 9,100 16,900 7,800 Bullish
 
COT-28-5-obr-1-1.png
Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Total net speculator positions rose by 4,100 contracts last week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 3,800 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 300 contracts.

The price of the euro strengthened slightly last week and continues to hover near the resistance band.

Long-term resistance: 1.2240 - 1.2350

Long-term support: 1.1700 - 1.1750
 

The British pound

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

28/5/2021 -3,800 5,800 1,200 -4,600 Bullish
21/5/2021 -800 -3,300 -1,900 1,400 Weakening bullish
14/5/2021 21,200 8,400 12,800 4,400 Bullish

 

COT-28-5-obr-2-1.png
Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, the total net positions of speculators grew by 5,800 contracts. This change is the result of long positions increasing by 1,200 contracts, while net short positions fell by 4,600 contracts.

The pound continued to strengthen last week and is hovering near a resistance band.

 

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

 

Long-term support: 1.3670-1.3700
 

The Australian dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

28/5/2021 -2,600 -3,800 -2,800 1,000 Bearish
21/5/2021 -3,500 600 -1,300 -1,900 Bullish
14/5/2021 3,300 900 800 -100 Bullish
 
COT-28-5-obr-3-1.png
Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, speculators' total net positions fell by 3,800 contracts. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 2,800 and an increase in short positions by 1,000 contracts.

The Australian dollar continued to weaken last week and the price broke the rising trend line to the downside. However this could be a false breakout if the price returns above this line again and then the price could rise further. Otherwise, the pair could continue to weaken.

Tuesday's interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia will be important and will have a major impact on the movement of the Australian dollar this week.

Long-term resistance: 0.7870-0.8000

 

Long-term support: 0.7530-0.7600
 

The New Zealand dollar

 

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

28/5/2021 1,100 200 800 600 Bullish
21/5/2021 -2,300 -900 -2,800 -1,900 Weakening bullish
14/5/2021 1,000 700 0 -700 Bullish

COT-28-5-obr-4-1.png
Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions rose by 200 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 800 and an increase in short contracts by 600.

The NZD strengthened strongly last week following the central bank's rate decision, which left the key rate at 0.25%.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.6900-0.6960

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