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Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 23/4/2021


The total net positions of speculators in the USD index fell by 2,500 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 2,000 contracts and an increase in short positions by 500 contracts.

There was a strong increase in the total net positions of speculators in the euro, the Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar,

The total net positions of speculators fell in the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The overall net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1:

 

23/4/2021

16/4/2021

9/4/2021

2/4/2021

26/3/2021

19/3/2021

USD index

3,500

6,000

4,400

5,700

5,400

5,800

EUR

80,800

66,900

67,500

73,700

93,300

90,000

GBP

25,200

25,600

20,000

25,000

21,800

28,600

AUD

-1,800

3,800

4,100

12,300

5,900

7,600

NZD

4,300

2,500

3,100

4,000

4,700

6,000

CAD

13,200

2,400

2,700

6,500

5,100

10,300

CHF

-1,600

800

3,200

4,300

2,900

4,700

JPY

-59,800

-58,300

-58,000

-59,500

-53,500

-39,400

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the required limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading of long-term trends.

Total net positions are the difference between the number of bullish long contracts and the number of bearish short contracts. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The sentiment of large speculators will allow you to see what position this group occupies in the market. It is important to monitor the overall trend of total net positions, but also separately the trend of bearish short positions and the trend of bullish long positions. Extreme values ​​of total net positions are also important as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

It is also important to monitor the turning points, when the total net positions change from bullish sentiment to bearish and vice versa. These inflection points are indicated in the graphs in section 3.

The chart compares the current value of the total net positions of large speculators with the value 3 years ago. A score of 0% means that speculators are at their lowest levels in 3 years. A score of 100% means that speculators are at the highest values ​​in the last 3 years. A value of 80% or more means that speculators are extremely bullish, and a value of 20% or less means that speculators are extremely bearish.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

  • Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the overall net position of large speculators.

  • Green linein the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

  • Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.
     

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.


 

Euro

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

23/4/2021 13,000 13,900 6,500 7,400 Bullish
16/4/2021 6,000 -600 -1,500 -900 Weakening bullish
9/4/2021 2,500 -6,200 -2,500 3,700 Weakening bullish

COT report - euro - 23. 4. 2021

Figure1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


The total net positions of speculators grew by 13,900 contracts last week. This change is due to an increase in net long positions by 6,500 contracts and a decrease in net short positions by 7,400 contracts.

The price of the euro strengthened strongly last week and approached the price of 1.2100.

Long-term resistance: 1.2240 - 1.2350

Long-term support: 1.1700 - 1.1750
 

The British Pound

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

23/4/2021 15,500 -400 8,200 8,600 Weakening bullish
16/4/2021 8,200 5,600 7,500 1,900 Bullish
9/4/2021 800 - 5,000 - 2,000 3,000 Weakening bullish

COT report - British pound - 23. 4. 2021

Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, the total net positions of speculators fell by 400 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long positions by 8200 contracts, while net short positions increased by 8600 contracts.

The pound strengthened strongly against the US dollar last week.

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

Long-term support: 1.3670-1.3700
 

The Australlian Dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

23/4/2021 -3,500 -5,600 -7,300 -1,700 Bearish
16/4/2021 2,400 - 300 1,000 1,300 Weakening bullish
9/4/2021 - 100 - 8,200 - 3,600 4,600 Weakening bullish

COT report - Australian Dollar - 23. 4. 2021

Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, speculators' overall net positions fell by 5,600 contracts to negative territory. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,300 and a decrease in short positions by 1,700 contracts.

The Australian dollar strengthened slightly last week in line with risk on sentiment.

Long-term resistance: 0.7870-0.8000

Long-term support: 0.7530-0.7600
 

The New Zealand Dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

23/4/2021 2,200 1,800 2,000 200 Bullish
16/4/2021 1,100 - 600 500 1,100 Weakening bullish
9/4/2021 600 - 900 300 1 200 Weakening bullish

COT report - New Zealand Dollar - 23. 4. 2021

Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions grew by 1,800 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long contracts by 2000 and an increase in net short contracts by 200.

NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week due to risk on sentiment. NZDUSD is strongly correlated with AUDUSD.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.6900-0.6960