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Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/1/2021

Total net positions in the USD index fell by 400 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in net long positions by 1,500 and an increase in net short positions by 1,900 contracts. The total net positions in the USD index have been negative for eleven weeks in a row. The US dollar is therefore still under pressure.

The total net positions decreased in the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. There was a significant increase in the total net positions of speculators in the euro last week.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

 

22/1/2021

15/1/2021

8/1/2021

4/1/2021

28/12/2020

18/12/2020

USD index

-14 300

-13 900

-15 000

-14 600

-14 900

-14 100

EUR

163 500

155 900

143 000

143 100

143 900

141 800

GBP

13 700

12 900

3 700

4 800

6 000

4 100

AUD

4 900

5 500

- 3 900

-6 500

- 4 400

-9 300

NZD

16 000

14 700

12 000

12 500

13 700

14 200

CAD

10 300

12 100

14 500

15 400

10 100

-15 700

CHF

9 400

12 000

9 400

11 800

12 200

9 300

JPY

50 000

50 500

50 200

47 300

46 100

44 000

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the required limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading of long-term trends.

Total net positions are the difference between the number of bullish long contracts and the number of bearish short contracts. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The sentiment of large speculators will allow you to see what position this group occupies in the market. It is important to monitor the overall trend of total net positions, but also separately the trend of bearish short positions and the trend of bullish long positions. Extreme values ​​of total net positions are also important as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

It is also important to monitor the turning points, when the total net positions change from bullish sentiment to bearish and vice versa. These inflection points are indicated in the graphs in section 3.

The chart compares the current value of the total net positions of large speculators with the value 3 years ago. A score of 0% means that speculators are at their lowest levels in 3 years. A score of 100% means that speculators are at the highest values ​​in the last 3 years. A value of 80% or more means that speculators are extremely bullish, and a value of 20% or less means that speculators are extremely bearish.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

  • Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the overall net position of large speculators.

  • Green linein the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

  • Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.
     

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.


 

Euro

Weekly change in total net positions

Weekly change in total long positions

Weekly change in total short positions

Sentiment

+7,600

7,800

200

bullish


Figure1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Total net positions rose by 7,600 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in net long positions by 7,800 contracts and an increase in net short positions by 200 contracts.

The price of the euro strengthened last week, although data from the Eurozone to the PMI index was somewhat worse than expected, especially in the area of ​​services, where the impact of other lockdowns is most pronounced. The strengthening of the euro is thus probably due to the continued weak dollar.

Long-term resistance: 1.2250 - 1.2340

Long-term support: 1.1950 - 1.2000
 

The British Pound

Weekly change in total net positions

Weekly change in total long positions

Weekly change in total short positions

Sentiment

800

-2,000

-2,800

bullish


Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions rose by 800 contracts. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 2,000 contracts, while net short positions decreased by 2,800 contracts.

The pound strengthened last week. As in the case of the euro, worse PMI data were reported. The strengthening of the pound is thus probably due to the weak dollar. The pound is currently moving near the resistance area.

Long-term resistance: 1.37-1.3820

Long-term support: 1.33-1.3500
 

The Australlian Dollar

Weekly change in total net positions

Weekly change in total long positions

Weekly change in total short positions

Sentiment

-600

-500

100

bullish


Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions fell by 600 contracts. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 500 contracts, while net short positions increased by 100 contracts.

The Australian dollar opened and closed last week at about the same price.

Long-term resistance: 0.7750-0.7820

Long-term support: 0.7600-0.7650
 

The New Zealand Dollar

Weekly change in total net positions

Weekly change in total long positions

Weekly change in total short positions

Sentiment

+1,300

1,900

600

bullish


Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart


In the New Zealand dollar, total net positions are still in bullish sentiment, which has been going on for 23 weeks in a row. Last week, total net positions grew by 1,300 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long contracts by 1,900 contracts and an increase in net short contracts by 600.

The NZDUSD price rebounded from 0.71 support last week and then strengthened further.

Resistance: 0.7230-0.7320

The nearest support: 0.7050-0.7100