Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 10/9/2021


Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 800 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 2,800 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 3,600 contracts.

The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the New Zealand dollar, and the Japanese yen.

The decrease in total net positions occurred in the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar.

Last week on Friday, the US industrial inflation data were presented. The data was higher than analysts had expected. The US dollar strengthened as the result it. This week consumer inflation data will be presented in the US, UK, Canada and the Eurozone.

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.

 

10/9/2021

3/9/2021

27/8/2021

20/8/2021

13/8/2021

6/8/2021

USD index

21,500

20,700

20,400

19,200

19 300

18,900

EUR

26,300

10,500

24,600

57,600

33 900

38,000

GBP

-24,500

-14,900

-16,700

4,700

7 100

-100

AUD

-70,500

-60,100

-56,600

-50,400

-49 300

-41,300

NZD

3,900

-2,100

-400

-200

-1 000

-300

CAD

-6,000

-2,800

5,900

2,700

6 500

7,500

CHF

200

4,000

4,100

5,500

9 700

7,500

JPY

-62,300

-63,100

-66,700

-63,200

-60,700

-55,200

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

Euro

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

10/9/2021 -8,400 15,800 -700 -16,500 Bullish
3/9/2021 6,600 -14,100 -3,600 10,600 Weakening bullish
27/8/2021 3,800 -33,000 -39,400 -6,400 Weakening bullish
 
COT-16-7-obr-1-1.png
Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Total net speculator positions rose by 15,800 contracts last week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 700 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 16,500 contracts.

The price of the euro weakened last week mainly after the ECB's announcement to keep interest rates on hold and after Friday's higher-than-expected US industrial inflation data.

Long-term resistance: 1.1870 - 1.1900

Long-term support: 1.1580 - 1.1620
 

We can take the level 1.17 as a support too as this is the level where the price bounced upwards last week.

The British pound

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

10/9/2021 7,400 -9,600 -7,200 2,400 Bearish
3/9/2021 -2,400 1,800 -2,900 -4,800 Bearish
27/8/2021 18,000 -21,400 -2,400 19,000 Bearish

 

COT-16-7-obr-2-1.png
Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, the total net positions of speculators fell by 9,600 contracts. The change in total net positions over the past week is the result of a decrease in long positions by 7,200 and growth in short positions by 2,400 contracts.

The pound weakened slightly against the US dollar last week.

Long-term resistance: 1.3900-1.3980

Long-term support: 1.3570-1.3620
 

The Australian dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

10/9/2021 -8,600 -10,400 -14,900 -4,500 Bearish
3/9/2021 -15,600 -3,500 -13,600 -10,100 Bearish
27.8.2021 10,700 -6,200 3,200 3,000 Bearish
 
COT-16-7-obr-3-1.png
Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


The increase in bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar continued last week with speculators' total net positions falling by 10,400 contracts. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 14,900 and a decrease in short positions by 4,500 contracts.

The lockdown in Australia continues to have a negative effect on the Australian dollar. Last week, however, the Australian dollar weakened under the influence of risk-off sentiment due to the correction that was taking place in the US equities.

Long-term resistance: 0.7560-0.7600

Další dlouhodobý support: 0.7100-0.7130
 

The New Zealand dollar

 

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

10/9/2021 9,800 6,000 2,400 -3,600

Bullish

3/9/2021 1,900 -1,700 500 2,200 Bearish
27/8/2021 2,200 -200 500 700 Bearish

COT-16-7-obr-4-1.png
Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions rose by 6,000 contracts, which is the result of 2,400 contracts increase in long positions and 3,600 contracts decrease in short positions.

The New Zealand dollar bounced off a resistance band and weakened slightly last week.

Resistance: 0.7130-0.7160

Long term support: 0.6760-0.6800

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