Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 19/11/202

Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 500 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,400 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,900 contracts.

The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen.

Declines in total net positions occurred on the British pound and the euro.

In the euro, the total net speculator positions have moved back into negative bearish territory. There is strong bullish sentiment in the New Zealand dollar, where the price is also at the strong support of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement drawn between the last swing high and swing low from the daily chart.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.
 

 

19/11/2021

12/11/2021

5/11/2021

29/10/2021

22/10/2021

15/10/2021

USD index

34,900

35,400

35,000

34,500

36,000

35,100

EUR

-3,800

3,800

-6,100

-11,300

-12,100

-18,400

GBP

-31,600

-12,100

15,000

15,000

1,600

-12,000

AUD

-61,200

-63,400

-75,500

-75,200

-76,100

-87,600

NZD

14,000

12,900

13,900

8,900

6,400

8,700

CAD

8,700

-5,100

4,200

3,300

-10,900

-27,900

CHF

-8,900

-17,000

-20,600

-19,400

-17,600

-13,000

JPY

-93,100

-105,400

-107,600

-107,000

-102,700

-76,600

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

The Euro

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

19/11/2021 27,300 -7,600 5,600 13,200 Bearish
12/11/2021 300 9,900 1,000 -8,900 Bullish
5/11/2021 -2,400 5,200 -5,300 -10,500 Weakening bearish
 
COT-22-10-obr-1.png
Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1
 

Total net speculator positions fell by 7,600 contracts last week. This change is due to a 5,600 contract increase in long positions and a 13,200 contract increase in short positions.

The euro weakened very sharply last week and broke through a strong support area at 1.1300. The next support is at 1.1150-1.1180, where the swing from June 2020 is.

Long-term resistance: 1.1500 - 1.1520
Long-term support: 1.1150 - 1.1180

 

The British pound

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

19/11/2021 20,200 -19,500 -3,600 15,900 Bearish
12/11/2021 20,100 -27,100 -3,300 23,900 Bearish
5/11/2021 10,300 0 5,300 5,300 Bullish

 

COT-22-10-obr-2.png
Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1
 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators fell by 19,500. This state of total net positions over the past week is the result of a decrease in long positions by 3,600 and an increase in short positions by 15,900 contracts.

The pound continues to be in a downtrend and continued to weaken last week, reaching the 1.3350 support. Here, the price bounced and the pound formed a bullish engulf on the daily chart, which is a signal for long trades and which was confirmed by the subsequent upward move.

Long-term resistance: 1.3600-1.3610
Long-term support: 1.3350-1.3400

 

 

The Australian dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

19/11/2021 9,400 2,200 6,900 4,700 Weakening bearish
12/11/2021 -5,600 12,100 4,700 -7,400 Weakening bearish
5/11/2021 2,900 -300 1,700 2,000 Bearish
 
COT-22-10-obr-3.png
Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1
 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators rose by 2,200 contracts. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 6,900 contracts and the growth of short positions by 4,700 contracts.

The Australian dollar weakened last week and fell below the rising trend line. However, there is a Fibonacci retracement of 78.6%, which tends to be strong support. So if the trend line break proves to be false, it would be a strong bullish signal for the Australian dollar to strengthen.

Long-term resistance: 0.7550-0.7600
Long-term support: 0.7160-0.7170

 

The New Zealand dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

19/11/2021 -500 1,100 1,100 0 Bullish
12/11/2021 -1,900 -1,000 -2,200 -1,200 Weakening bullish
5/11/2021 2,400 5,000 3,000 -2,000 Bullish

COT-22-10-obr-4.png
Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1
 

Last week, total net positions fell by 1,000 contracts. The change in total net positions is the result of a decrease in long positions by 2,200 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,200 contracts. 

The New Zealand dollar weakened last week and was trading at 0.7000, where new support was formed. The EMA 50 moving average continues to move above the SMA 100 on the daily chart, which is a bullish constellation. A higher high and higher low on the daily chart signals an uptrend. There is an interesting confluence with the Fibonacci levels as the current horizontal support is also the Fibo level of 61.8%, which often serves as a support for the price reversals.

Long-term resistance: 0.7200-0.7220
Long-term support: 0.6980-0.7000

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