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Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/3/2021


The total net positions of speculators in the USD index grew by 3,800 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in net long positions by 3,200 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 600 contracts. The total net positions in the USD index have been negative for 17 consecutive weeks.

According to the COT index, the positions of large speculators are at extreme levels, which indicate that the dollar is oversold. The current increase in overall net positions, together with rising yields on US bonds, could continue to support the US dollar strengthening.

The total net positions of speculators increased in the British pound, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. On the other hand, the decline in total net positions continued in the euro and the Japanese yen.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The overall net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1:

 

5/3/2021

26/2/2021

19/2/2021

12/2/2021

5/2/2021

29/1/2021

USD index

-10,100

-13,900

- 14,300

-13,900

-14,800

-14,700

EUR

126,000

138,400

140,000

140,200

137,000

165,300

GBP

36,100

31,000

22,200

21,100

9,700

8,000

AUD

6,000

- 1,600

- 2,800

-200

-1,500

800

NZD

16,400

14,600

13,700

11,500

11,600

14,800

CAD

15,300

9,100

8,200

9,500

16,100

13,800

CHF

12,300

11,500

8,400

11,400

14,600

10,100

JPY

19,300

28,600

37,200

34,600

44,600

45,000

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the required limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading of long-term trends.

Total net positions are the difference between the number of bullish long contracts and the number of bearish short contracts. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The sentiment of large speculators will allow you to see what position this group occupies in the market. It is important to monitor the overall trend of total net positions, but also separately the trend of bearish short positions and the trend of bullish long positions. Extreme values ​​of total net positions are also important as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

It is also important to monitor the turning points, when the total net positions change from bullish sentiment to bearish and vice versa. These inflection points are indicated in the graphs in section 3.

The chart compares the current value of the total net positions of large speculators with the value 3 years ago. A score of 0% means that speculators are at their lowest levels in 3 years. A score of 100% means that speculators are at the highest values ​​in the last 3 years. A value of 80% or more means that speculators are extremely bullish, and a value of 20% or less means that speculators are extremely bearish.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

  • Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the overall net position of large speculators.

  • Green linein the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

  • Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.
     

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.


 

Euro

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

5/3/2021 1,313 - 12,400 - 5,800 6 600

Weakening bullish

26/2/2021

21,200

-1,600

5,600

7,200

Weak bullish

19/2/2021

2,600

-200

2,000

2,200

Bullish

12/2/2021

- 2,400

3,200

4,000

800

Bullish


Figure1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Total net positions fell by 12,400 contracts last week. This change is due to a decrease in net long positions by 5,800 contracts and an increase in net short positions by 6,600 contracts.

The price of the euro continued to fall last week, breaking the low trend line and currently heading into the area of ​​consolidation in the range between 1.1600-1.1900.

Long-term resistance: 1.2250 - 1.2340

Long-term support: 1.1600 - 1.1620
 

The British Pound

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

5/3/2021 - 7,400 5,100 - 3,100 - 8,200 Bullish

26/2/2021

5,500

8,800

8,000

-800

Bullish

19/2/2021

1,100

1,100

-200

-1,300

Bullish

12/2/2021

9,100

11,400

6,800

-4,600

Bullish


Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions rose by 5,100 contracts. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 3,100 contracts, while net short positions decreased by 8,200 contracts.

The pound weakened last week and approached the zone of long-term support in the range around 1.37-1.38.

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

Long-term support: 1.37-1.38200
 

The Australlian Dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

5/3/2021 4,600 7,600 5,400 - 2,200 Bullish

26/2/2021

4,300

1,200

1,000

-200

Weak bullish

19/2/2021

500

-2,600

-1,300

1,300

Bearish

12/2/2021

- 2,150

1,300

200

-1,100

Weak bearish


Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions rose by 7,600 contracts, reaching positive bullish sentiment. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,400 and a decrease in short positions by 2,200 contracts.

The Australian dollar weakened sharply last week due to the decline in the stock indices which it correlates with.

Long-term resistance: 0.810-0.8200

Long-term support: 0.7600-0.7650
 

The New Zealand Dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

5/3/2021 400 1,800 1,400 - 400 Bullish

26/2/2021

100

900

200

-700

Bullish

19/2/2021

-600

2,200

1,100

-1,100

Bullish

12/2/2021

- 2,030

-100

-1,400

-1,200

Bullish


Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions grew by 1,800 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long contracts by 1,400 and a decrease in net short contracts by 400.

The NZDUSD weakened sharply last week in tandem with the Australian dollar and stock indices.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.7050-0.7100