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Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 30/4/2021

The total net positions of speculators in the USD index fell to 800 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 900 contracts and a decrease in net short positions by 100 contracts.

The total net positions of speculators increased last week in the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar.

Developments on US dollar pairs have recently been determined by the development in US long-term bond yields. In case of their further stronger growth, the dollar might continue to strengthen.

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The overall net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1:

 

30/4/2021

23/4/2021

16/4/2021

9/4/2021

2/4/2021

26/3/2021

USD index

2,700

3,500

6,000

4,400

5,700

5,400

EUR

81,000

80,800

66,900

67,500

73,700

93,300

GBP

29,200

25,200

25,600

20,000

25,000

21,800

AUD

-1,400

-1,800

3,800

4,100

12,300

5,900

NZD

7,000

4,300

2,500

3,100

4,000

4,700

CAD

15,722

13,200

2,400

2,700

6,500

5,100

CHF

-700

-1,600

800

3,200

4,300

2,900

JPY

-48,500

-59,800

-58,300

-58,000

-59,500

-53,500

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the required limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading of long-term trends.

Total net positions are the difference between the number of bullish long contracts and the number of bearish short contracts. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The sentiment of large speculators will allow you to see what position this group occupies in the market. It is important to monitor the overall trend of total net positions, but also separately the trend of bearish short positions and the trend of bullish long positions. Extreme values ​​of total net positions are also important as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

It is also important to monitor the turning points, when the total net positions change from bullish sentiment to bearish and vice versa. These inflection points are indicated in the graphs in section 3.

The chart compares the current value of the total net positions of large speculators with the value 3 years ago. A score of 0% means that speculators are at their lowest levels in 3 years. A score of 100% means that speculators are at the highest values ​​in the last 3 years. A value of 80% or more means that speculators are extremely bullish, and a value of 20% or less means that speculators are extremely bearish.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

  • Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the overall net position of large speculators.

  • Green linein the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

  • Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.
     

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.


 

The Euro

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

30/4/2021 10,400 200 3,300 3,100 Bullish
23/4/2021 13,000 13,900 6,500 -7,400 Bullish
16/4/2021 6,000 -600 -1,500 -900 Weakening bullish
 
COT-30-4-obr-1.png
Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


The total net positions of speculators grew by 200 contracts last week. This change is due to an increase in net long positions by 3,300 contracts and an increase in net short positions by 3,100 contracts.

The price of the euro weakened slightly last week as it rebounded from the upper declining line, which now acts as a resistance. After breaking it and testing it back as a new support, one might expect the euro to strengthen against the dollar.

Long-term resistance: 1.1980 - 1.2020

Long-term support: 1.1700 - 1.1750
 

The British Pound

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

30/4/2021 -3,000 4,000 -1,100 -5,100  Bullish
23.4.2021 15,500 -400 8,200 8,600 Weakening bullish
16.4.2021 8,200 5,600 7,500 1,900 Bullish

 

COT-30-4-obr-2.png
Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, the total net position of speculators fell by 4,000 contracts. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 1,100 contracts, while net short positions decreased by 5,100 contracts

The pound weakened slightly against the US dollar last week.

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

Long-term support: 1.3670-1.3700
 

The Australlian Dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

30.4.2021 4,600 400 3,000 2,600 Weakening bearish
23.4.2021 -3,500 -5,600 -7,300 -1,700 Bearish
16.4.2021 2,400 -300 1,000 1,300 Weakening bullish
 
COT-30-4-obr-3.png
Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, the total net positions of speculators grew by 400 contracts. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 3,000 and an increase in short positions by 2,600 contracts.

The Australian dollar weakened slightly last week, but overall it is still in a rising trend in line with risk on sentiment.

Long-term resistance: 0.7870-0.8000

Long-term support: 0.7530-0.7600
 

The New Zealand dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

30/4/2021 3,500 2,700 4,200 1,500 Bullish
23/4/2021 2,200 1,800 2,000 200 Bullish
16/4/2021 1,100 - 600 500 1,100 Weakening bullish

COT-30-4-obr-4.png
Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions grew by 2,700 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long contracts by 4200 and an increase in net short contracts by 1500.

The NZDUSD weakened last week and formed a bearish pinbar. However, as stock indices continue to strengthen, a further strenghtening in this pair might occur as well as this pair strongly correlates with the SP500 index. However, if US bond rates rose sharply, the US dollar would rather be expected to strengthen and the NZDUSD could weaken. The movement of the NZDUSD pair is also strongly correlated with the AUDUSD.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.6900-0.6960