67.90 % of retail investors lose their capital when trading CFDs with this provider.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.90 % of retail investors lose their capital when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 24/9/2021

Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 800 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 2,100 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,300 contracts.

The increase in total net speculator positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen last week.

The decrease in total net positions occurred in the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar.

Last week, the US Fed made a rate decision. As expected, the Fed kept rates unchanged. However, the Fed announced that interest rates could start rising sooner than originally expected. According to the Fed, the tapering of bond purchases could start in November.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.
 

 

24/9/2021

17/9/2021

10/9/2021

3/9/2021

27/8/2021

20/8/2021

USD index

25,100

24,300

21,500

20,700

20,400

19,200

EUR

12,100

27,800

26,300

10,500

24,600

57,600

GBP

-200

4,800

-24,500

-14,900

-16,700

4,700

AUD

-83,400

-70,500

-60,100

-56,600

-50,400

-49,300

NZD

6,200

3,900

-2,100

-400

-200

-1,000

CAD

-9,300

-6,000

-2,800

5,900

2,700

6,500

CHF

-5,900

200

4,000

4,100

5,500

9,700

JPY

-60,300

-62,300

-63,100

-66,700

-63,200

-60,700

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

Euro

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

24/9/2021 10,400 -15,700 2,900 18,600 Weakening bullish
17/9/2021 -43,600 1,500 -3,400 -4,900 Bullish
10/9/2021 -8,400 15,800 -700 -16,500 Bullish
 
COT-6-8-obr-1.png

Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart

Total net speculator positions fell by 15,700 contracts last week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 2,900 contracts and an increase in short positions by 18,600 contracts.

The price of the euro continued to weaken last week and hovered around 1.17. After a breakout, a decline to 1.16 can be expected.

Long-term resistance: 1.1870 - 1.1900

Long-term support: 1.1580 - 1.1620

 

The British Pound

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

24/9/2021 17,300 -5,000 7,700 12,800 Bearish
17/9/2021 -58,800 29,300 14,800 -14,500 Bullish
10/9/2021 7,400 -9,600 -7,200 2,400 Bearish

 

COT-16-7-obr-2.png

Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, the total net positions of speculators fell by 5,000 contracts. The change in total net positions over the past week is the result of an increase in long positions of 7,700 contracts and an increase in short positions of 12,800 contracts.

The pound weakened against the US dollar last week and touched support in the region of 1.36.

Long-term resistance: 1.3900-1.3980

Long-term support: 1.3570-1.3620

 

 

The australian dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

24/9/2021 20,800 -2,200 11,600 13,800 Bearish
17/9/2021 -8,800 -12,900 -19,400 -6,500 Bearish
10/9/2021 -8,600 -10,400 -14,900 -4,500 Bearish
 
COT-16-7-obr-3.png

Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart
 

The increase in bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar continued. Last week, speculators' total net positions fell by 2,200 contracts. This change is due to a rise in long positions by 11,600 and a rise in short positions by 13,800 contracts.

The Australian dollar moved in 90 pips range last week and closed and opened at about the same price.

Long-term resistance: 0.7560-0.7600

Další dlouhodobý support: 0.7100-0.7130

 

The New Zealand dollar

 

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

24/9/2021 1,000 1,900 2,100 200 Bullish
17/9/2021 -22,400 2,300 -2,500 -4,800 Bullish
10/9/2021 9,800 6,000 2,400 -3,600 Bullish

COT-16-7-obr-4.png

Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions rose by 1,900 contracts. This is the result of 2,100 contracts increase in long positions and 200 contracts increase in short positions.

The New Zealand dollar weakened last week.

Resistance: 0.7130-0.7160

Long term support: 0.6760-0.6800

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Your capital is at risk.
67.90 % of retail investors lose their capital when trading CFDs with this provider.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.90 % of retail investors lose their capital when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.