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Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/10/2021

Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 900 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 1,800 contracts and an increase in short positions by 2,700 contracts.

The total net speculator positions in the USD index are the highest since October 2019. Speculator positions in the USD have been rising for 17 of the last 18 weeks.

The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar.

The decline in total net positions occurred in the Japanese yen, the New Zealand dollar, and the Swiss franc. 
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.
 

 

22/10/2021

15/10/2021

8/10/2021

1/10/2021

24/9/2021

17/9/2021

USD index

36,000

35,100

32,000

26,500

25,100

24,300

EUR

-12,100

-18,400

-22,300

900

12,100

27,800

GBP

1,600

-12,000

-20,000

2,000

-200

4,800

AUD

-76,100

-87,600

-90,000

-86,400

-85,600

-83,400

NZD

6,400

8,700

8,100

10,200

8,100

6,200

CAD

-10,900

-27 900

-26,900

-20,200

-27,900

-9,300

CHF

-17,600

-13,000

-15,700

-11,600

-9,200

-5,900

JPY

-102,700

-76,600

-63,700

-64,800

-56,100

-60,300

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

The euro



Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

22/10/2021 -15,900 6,300 -9,200 -15,500 Weakening bearish
15/10/2021 1,700 3,900 5,700 1,800 Weakening bullish
8/10/2021 25,500 -23,200 1,800 25,000 Bearish
 
COT-22-10-obr-1.png
Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart
 

Total net speculator positions rose by 6,300 contracts last week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 9,200 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 15,500 contracts. Total net speculator positions are negative at -12,100 contracts.

The euro continues to move in a downtrend. According to the daily chart, the price of the euro has reached the resistance zone around 1.1660, where the price reacted several times in the past week.  
 

Long-term resistance: 1.1660 - 1.1700
Long-term support: 1.1500 - 1.1520

 

The British pound



Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

22/10/2021 -13,900 13,600 2,300 -11,300 Bullish
15/10/2021 -9,500 8,000 -1,400 9,400 Weakening bearish
8/10/2021 10,600 -22,000 -9,800 12,200 Bearish

 

COT-22-10-obr-2.png
Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart
 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators rose by 13,600 contracts. The change in total net positions over the past week is the result of an increase in long positions of 2,300 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 11,300 contracts.

The pound keeps moving in a downtrend. Last week it broke through resistance at around 1.37, but the rise stopped at the downtrend line, where a false break occurred. False breaks tend to be strong signals and in this case, according to the theory, the price should start falling. We can also consider the SMA 100 moving average as a resistance, at which the price halted.   
 

Long-term resistance: 1.3820-1.3840
Long-term support: 1.3350-1.3400

 

 

The Australian dollar



Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

22/10/2021 -19,400 11,500 400 -11,100 Weakening bearish
15/10/2021 -10,800 2,400 -6,200 -8,600 Weakening bearish
8/10/2021 7,800 -3,600 -900 2,700 Bearish
 
COT-22-10-obr-3.png
Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart
 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators grew by 11,500 contracts. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 400 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 11,100 contracts.

The Australian dollar strengthened last week and broke the SMA 100 moving average resistance and a horizontal resistance at 0.7470.
 

Long-term resistance: 0.7550-0.7600
Long-term support: 0.7170-0.7180

 

The New Zealand dollar

  

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

22/10/2021 400 -2,300 500 2,800 Weakening bullish
15/10/2021 1,500 600 2,500 1,900 Bullish
8/10/2021 2,200 -2,100 -400 1,700 Weakening bullish

COT-22-10-obr-4.png
Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart
 

Last week, total net positions fell by 2,300 contracts. The change in total net positions is the result of an increase in long positions by 500 contracts and an increase in short positions by 2,800 contracts. 

The New Zealand dollar strengthened last week and broke through resistance at 0.7170. New resistance has formed at 0.720, which is also a new higher high. At the same time, the EMA 50 moving average is above the SMA 100, which is a bullish constellation.

Resistance: 0.7200-0.7220
Long term support: 0.7060-0.7100

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