Waiting for the breakout: USDJPY, EURCHF, and AUDCHF
Currency pairs currently offer countless trading situations which means you should be prepared by the beginning of the week. Specifically, we will look at possible breakouts, ie breaking through key supports or resistances, on the currency pairs USDJPY, EURCHF, and AUDCHF.
The Japanese yen, on a 60M time frame, creates the formation of a descending triangle, the upper edge of which the market has already tested this morning. At the same time, it respects strong support at 103.733. This morning, however, the yen broke it and immediately tested it from the other side, where it created a strong pinbar. In the event that the market did not break through support last week and create another local minimum at 103.65, an ideal entry into the short position would now be offered. However, we will have to wait a while longer, as the market can react to the price of 103.65 and reverse its current declining trend.
More conservative traders will now wait for the 103.65 test and its possible breach. The subsequent return to pullback to this level will be a confirmation for entering a short position. A riskier entry is already at breaking through the last pinbar, but as has already been said, strong support may suspend the market. Intraday traders could then be attracted by strong resistance at 103.97.
For the last two weeks, the EURCHF currency pair has only been consolidating. However, the market also suggests that it could break through the upper resistance at 1.08237. EURCHF had tested it several times and even falsely broke through. It is precisely the false breakthroughs that we should continue to pay attention to, and that is why the ideal setup is again to break through this resistance, which will suddenly become support. Entering a long position would then be a test of this support. However, the market must at least close above the resistance in the 4H time frame, and only then do we consider the entry. Continued growth also indicates the creation of higher highs and therefore the formation of a growing triangle.
Another currency pair with the Swiss franc has also largely consolidated over the last 2 weeks, but the volatility is much greater for the AUDCHF pair. Higher volatility has created the well-known formation of a symmetrical triangle, where we are currently waiting for a breakthrough. The one on the 4H chart came during this morning, but we can notice that it was a fake breakthrough. The market has returned very quickly to the center of consolidation and we are currently waiting for a better opportunity to enter. It should look similar to the situation from the beginning of November, as you can see marked in purple color. Here, the market broke through the formation of a symmetrical triangle and then tested the declining trend line from the other side.
The breakout can come to both sides at this point. Possible trade on the short side then offers an interesting level for profit collection at the price of 0.65657, where strong buyers were last active and at the same time it is very strong support from the past.