Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022
Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 730 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 2,270 contracts and an increase in short positions by 3,000 contracts.
The decrease in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, and the Canadian dollar.
The increase in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.
The positions of speculators in individual currencies
The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.
Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators
DatE
|
USD Index
|
EUR
|
GBP
|
AUD
|
NZD
|
JPY
|
CAD
|
CHF
|
Mar 08, 2022
|
34044
|
58844
|
-12526
|
-78195
|
-12379
|
-55856
|
7646
|
-9710
|
Mar 01, 2022
|
34774
|
64939
|
-337
|
-78336
|
-14172
|
-68732
|
14140
|
-15248
|
Feb 22, 2022
|
36084
|
59306
|
-5809
|
-84080
|
-11551
|
-63187
|
9253
|
-10987
|
Feb 15, 2022
|
35386
|
47581
|
2237
|
-86694
|
-9333
|
-66162
|
12170
|
-9715
|
Feb 08, 2022
|
33765
|
38842
|
-8545
|
-85741
|
-10366
|
-59148
|
14886
|
-9399
|
Feb 01, 2022
|
34571
|
29716
|
-23605
|
-79829
|
-11698
|
-60640
|
18264
|
-8239
|
Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.
Notes:
- Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.
- The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.
- The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.
- When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.
- Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Detailed analysis of selected currencies
Explanations:
- Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com.
- Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.
- We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts.
Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com