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Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 16/4/2021

The total net positions of speculators in the USD index rose by 1,600 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 1,000 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,600 contracts.

The decline in total net positions of speculators continued in the euro, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

The increase in total net positions occurred in the British pound.

Risk on sentiment in stock indices prevailed in the markets last week with the cryptocurrency bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. This sentiment was accompanied by a sharp drop in US 10-year bond yields, which led to a weakening of the US dollar. Accordingly, commodity currencies and the euro strengthened.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The overall net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1:

 

16/4/2021

9/4/2021

2/4/2021

26/3/2021

19/3/2021

12/3/2021

USD index

6,000

4,400

5,700

5,400

5,800

-8,900

EUR

66,900

67,500

73,700

93,300

90,000

102,000

GBP

25,600

20,000

25,000

21,800

28,600

33,900

AUD

3,800

4,100

12,300

5,900

7,600

8,100

NZD

2,500

3,100

4,000

4,700

6,000

17,100

CAD

2,400

2,700

6,500

5,100

10,300

11,000

CHF

800

3,200

4,300

2,900

4,700

14,400

JPY

-58,300

-58,000

-59,500

-53,500

-39,400

6,500

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the required limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading of long-term trends.

Total net positions are the difference between the number of bullish long contracts and the number of bearish short contracts. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The sentiment of large speculators will allow you to see what position this group occupies in the market. It is important to monitor the overall trend of total net positions, but also separately the trend of bearish short positions and the trend of bullish long positions. Extreme values ​​of total net positions are also important as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

It is also important to monitor the turning points, when the total net positions change from bullish sentiment to bearish and vice versa. These inflection points are indicated in the graphs in section 3.

The chart compares the current value of the total net positions of large speculators with the value 3 years ago. A score of 0% means that speculators are at their lowest levels in 3 years. A score of 100% means that speculators are at the highest values ​​in the last 3 years. A value of 80% or more means that speculators are extremely bullish, and a value of 20% or less means that speculators are extremely bearish.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

  • Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the overall net position of large speculators.

  • Green linein the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

  • Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.
     

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.


 

Euro

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

16/4/2021 6,000 - 600 - 1,500 - 900 Weakening bullish
9/4/2021 2,500 - 6,200 - 2,500 3,700 Weakening bullish
2/4/2021 3,700 - 19,600 - 700 18,900 Weakening bullish

COT report - euro - 16. 4. 2021

Figure1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Total net positions of speculators fell by 600 contracts last week. This change is due to a decrease in net long positions by 1,500 contracts and a decrease in net short positions by 900 contracts.

The price of the euro strengthened strongly last week and reached the price of 1.1980 at the first resistance level.

Long-term resistance: 1.1980 - 1.2020

Long-term support: 1.1700 - 1.1750
 

The British Pound

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

16/4/2021 8,200 5,600 7,500 1,900 Bullish
9/4/2021 800 - 5,000 - 2,000 3,000 Weakening bullish
2/4/2021 - 6,300 3,200 - 4,600 - 7,800 Bullish

COT report - British pound - 16. 4. 2021

Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions rose by 5,600 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long positions by 7,500 contracts, while net short positions grew by 1,900 contracts.

The pound strengthened strongly against the US dollar last week.

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

Long-term support: 1.3670-1.3700
 

The Australlian Dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

16/4/2021 2,400 - 300 1,000 1,300 Weakening bullish
9/4/2021 - 100 - 8,200 - 3,600 4,600 Weakening bullish
2/4/2021 4,100 6,400 7,600 1,200 Bullish

COT report - Australian Dollar - 16. 4. 2021

Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions of speculators fell by 300 contracts. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 1,000 and an increase in short positions by 1,300 contracts.

The Australian dollar strengthened strongly last week in line with risk on sentiment. This commodity currency continues to be strongly correlated with the SP 500 index. Therefore, if stock indices continue to grow, this commodity currency could also strengthen.

Long-term resistance: 0.7870-0.8000

Long-term support: 0.7530-0.7600
 

The New Zealand Dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

16/4/2021 1,100 - 600 500 1,100 Weakening bullish
9/4/2021 600 - 900 300 1 200 Weakening bullish
2/4/2021 - 1,400 - 700 - 1,400 - 700 Weakening bullish

COT report - New Zealand Dollar - 16. 4. 2021

Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart


Last week, total net positions fell by 600 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long contracts by 500 and an increase in net short contracts by 1,100.

As the AUDUSD, so the NZDUSD could strengthen further due to risk on sentiment. The NZDUSD is strongly correlated with the AUDUSD.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.6900-0.6960