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Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/10/2021

Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 3,100 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 4,700 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,600 contracts.

The total net speculator positions in the USD index are the highest since October 2019. Speculator positions in the USD have risen for 16 of the last 17 weeks.

Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc.

Declines in total net positions occurred in the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar.

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.
 

 

15/10/2021

8/10/2021

1/10/2021

24/9/2021

17/9/2021

10/9/2021

USD index

35,100

32,000

26,500

25,100

24,300

21,500

EUR

-18,400

-22,300

900

12,100

27,800

26,300

GBP

-12,000

-20,000

2,000

-200

4,800

-24,500

AUD

-87,600

-90,000

-86,400

-85,600

-83,400

-70,500

NZD

8,700

8,100

10,200

8,100

6,200

3,900

CAD

-27,900

-26,900

-20,200

-27,900

-9,300

-6,000

CHF

-13,000

-15,700

-11,600

-9,200

-5,900

200

JPY

-76,600

-63,700

-64,800

-56,100

-60,300

-62,300

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

Euro

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

15/10/2021 1,700 3,900 5,700 1,800 Weakening bullish
8/10/2021 25,500 -23,200 1,800 25,000 Bearish
1/10/2021 4,500 -11,200 5,700 16,900 Weakening bullish
 
COT-8-10-obr-1.png

Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart
 

Total net speculator positions rose by 3,900 contracts last week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,700 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,8000 contracts. Total net speculator positions are negative at -18,400 contracts.

The euro continues to move in a downtrend. According to the daily chart, the price of the euro has reached the resistance zone around 1.1600.

Long-term resistance: 1.1600 - 1.1620

Long-term support: 1.1350 - 1.1500

 

The British Pound

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

15/10/2021 -9,500 8,000 -1,400 9,400 Weakening bearish
8/10/2021 10,600 -22,000 -9,800 12,200 Bearish
1/10/2021 11,900 2,200 6,000 3,800 Bullish

 

COT-8-10-obr-2.png

Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart
 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators rose by 8,000 contracts. The change in total net positions over the past week is the result of a decrease in long positions of 1,400 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 9,400 contracts.
 

The pound is falling and reached a resistance around 1.3700.
 

Long-term resistance: 1.3740-1.3770

Long-term support: 1.3350-1.3400

 

 

The australian dollar

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

15/10/2021 -10,800 2,400 -6,200 -8,600 Weakening bearish
8/10/2021 7,800 3,600 -900 2,700 Bearish
1/10/2021 -4,600 -800 -6,300 -5,500 Bearish
 
COT-8-10-obr-3.png

Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart
 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators grew by 2,400 contracts. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,200 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 8,600 contracts.

The Australian dollar strengthened last week and reached the resistance represented on the daily chart by the SMA 100 moving average.

Long-term resistance: 0.7450-0.7500

Long-term support: 0.7100-0.7130

 

The New Zealand dollar

 

Date

Weekly change in open interest

Weekly change in total net positions of speculators

Weekly change in total long positions of speculators

Weekly change in total short positions of speculators

Sentiment

15/10/2021 1,500 600 2,500 1,900 Bullish
8/10/2021 2,200 -2,100 -400 1,700 Weakening bullish
1/10/2021 -3,000 2,100 -1,400 -3,500 Bullish

COT-8-10-obr-4.png

Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart
 

Last week, total net positions rose by 600 contracts. The change in total net positions is the result of an increase in long positions by 2,500 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,900 contracts. 
 

The New Zealand dollar strengthened last week and reached the 0.7100 resistance. At the same time, the price is at the declining upper trend line, which confirms the downtrend.
 

Resistance: 0.7060-0.7100

Long term support: 0.6850-0.6860

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