Brexit in a week from 30/9 – 6/10/2019

The fight for Brexit is beginning to culminate, and there are only four weeks left to resolve the drama. We are, of course, curious to see how this plot will turn out, and moreover, we are most interested in how traders can use it. Therefore, we have prepared another weekly analysis with a summary of the past week's events and what will happen next. Let's first have look at the fundamental data.

Fundamental analysis

Last week, the United Kingdom submitted a written proposal to the European Commission for amendments to the withdrawal agreement. These amendments concern the so-called Irish backstop, which was part of an agreement negotiated by Theresa May and for which the agreement was not approved by the British Parliament. Boris Johnson’s government reportedly came up with an alternative proposal to address the problem of the Irish backstop and the possible borders between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

 

According to the current proposal, the Irish backstop should be replaced by customs measures, which will not, however, lead to a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The British government wants to introduce customs controls at ports in the Irish Sea and beyond the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland borders. The European Commission has promised to review the proposal. However, doubts have already emerged that the EU would agree with the modified draft agreement.

 

Boris Johnson continues to proclaim that the United Kingdom will leave the EU on  October 31, 2019, even without agreement if the EU does not accept proposed amendments. It is possible that Boris Johnson is relying on the assistance of some EU states that will not want to agree to a further delay of Brexit. Note: According to legislation, all EU countries must agree to postpone Brexit.

 

From the macroeconomic data, GDP data for Q2 were reported from the United Kingdom last week, reaching 1.3% on a year-on-year basis (the previous figure was 1.2%). Above all, however, information on the PMI (the so-called Purchasing Managers' Index) was reported. In the manufacturing sector, PMI is 48.3%, in construction PMI 43.3% and in services PMI 49.5%.  Let’s remind that that if the PMI is less than 50%, this indicates a decline in economic activity in these sectors.

 

The influence of the GBPUSD currency pair is also affected by US data and very important employment data from the USA were reported last week. The NFPnon-farm payroll data, which measures the change in the number of employees during the reporting month, reached 136,000 and was slightly worse than the expected value of 140,000. On the other hand, unemployment information exceeded expectations and reached 3.5% compared to the expected 3.7%.

Technical analysis as at October 6, 2019


The GBPUSD currency pair fluctuated between 1.22 and 1.24 in the past week and the price opened at 1.2290 and closed at 1.2328. On the weekly chart, see Figure 1, there was created a Doji candlestick last week, which stopped the decline from the last week of September. The candlestick signals to us the indecision of the market, because the upper and lower wicks are approximately the same size and the difference between the opening and closing prices is not very significant.


Figure 1: GBPUSD on weekly chart

On the daily chart, see Figure 2, we can see that in the past week the price was around the value of support, which we identified in the range between 1.2280 and 1.2330.

The first higher high may indicate that the turn of the downtrend is approaching. To confirm this, it is now necessary for the price to create a higher low. Is it possible that this low is starting to form right now? We can't rule it out. In any case, the price touched the bottom of the growing channel we mentioned last week, while the price touched the Fibonacci level of 61.8, on which there are often reactions.

From Figure 2 we can see that the faster EMA 50 (red) is still below SMA 100 (green), indicating a continued downtrend. Daily candlesticks of the last week, however, gradually formed higher lower wicks, in other words, the low of these candles increases, which indicates increasing momentum for the price moving upwards.


 Figure 2: GBPUSD on daily chart
 

If level 1.22 breaks down, we can expect another drop to level 1.20. If support at 1.22 - 1.23 keeps the price and if resistance to the moving average of SMA 100 is subsequently broken, we can expect further growth.

Resistance 1 is at a level of around 1.250-1.2570.

Resistance 2 is approximately 1.2750 - 1.2850. Here is a confluence with the Fibonacci level 61.8 and the resistance that was created on May 17, 2019, by breaking the previous support, see Figure 1.

Support 1 is in zone 1.2280-1.2330.

Support 2 is in the range of 1.20 - 1.2050.

Other support levels are around 1.22 and 1.21. They are both whole numbers and also they are values ​​that lie at Fibonacci levels 61.8 and 78.6, see in Figure 1.
 

Should the United Kingdom agree with the EU on the revised withdrawal agreement, this currency pair could be expected to continue to strengthen sharply. 

 


What awaits us this week?

In the previous article, we announced the possibility of a vote of no confidence in the Johnson government. This has not yet happened. In recent days, however, we have seen the situation around Brexit negotiations change very quickly. We, therefore, believe that the vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson’s government still exists and its likelihood will increase if Boris Johnson wants to circumvent the law in any way to avoid asking the European Union for Brexit delay if he fails to negotiate a Brexit withdrawal agreement.

 

In this context, it will, therefore, be very interesting to follow further developments regarding the proposed amendment to the Brexit agreement. It is possible that by the end of the week the EU  official position on this proposal could be known.

From a macroeconomic point of view, further GDP data will be reported next week. In addition, data on the Halifax House Price Index will be presented as well as important data on production output, which accounts for 80% of total industrial output in the UK. Trade balance data will also be presented.

The impact of the GBPUSD will also be affected by US data. Next week, the FOMC meeting minutes will be presented at 20:00 on Wednesday, offering a detailed look at the reasons for the Fed's interest rate talks held two weeks ago. In the case of notes on the weakening of the economy and considerations of possible support for economic growth may be a signal to the US dollar weakening. Recently reported weak PMI data - the Purchasing Managers Index in the US could support these considerations.



 

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