Brexit  in a week from 23/9 - 29/9/2019

Fundamental analysis

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered another defeat last week when the United Kingdom Supreme Court confirmed on 24 September 2019 that the parliamentary break initiated by Johnson was not legal. Parliament therefore returned to office.

So far, it seems that Johnson's strategy of bringing the UK out of the EU, even at the price of a hard brexit, is the way he lost everything. As for the possible agreement with the EU on the leaving of Britain, there has been no formal progress yet. The situation is therefore still at a point where Johnson constantly reiterates that he will not request further postponement of Brexit and that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union on 31 October 2019, either with or without an agreement. However, it is not at all clear how he wants to achieve this.

Last week, macroeconomic data were reported on industrial order trends (CBI), which were worse than expected. The indicator reached a negative value of -28 compared to -13 for the previous month. A negative value indicates that the volume of orders should decline in the coming period. In addition, better than expected consumer confidence indicators were reported, with the index rising from -14 for the period of August 2019 to -12, which was reported on 27/9/2019.

Technical analysis as at 29/9/2019

The GBPUSD currency pair bounced down from the resistance level, which lies in the range of around 1.250-1.2570, in the past week, quite convincingly, when a strong bear candle was formed, as can be seen on the chart in Figure 1. Last week the price closed at 1.2289.

Picture1.png
Figure 1: GBPUSD on weekly chart

On the daily chart, see Figure 2, we can see that after the price bounced up from double bottom, the price continued to rise until September 19, 2019, when the price exceeded the SMA 100 and created a high that is higher than the high from the period 8/26- 8/29/2019.  After that, however, further growth was rejected and the price gradually fell to the level of the first support last week.
The first higher high may indicate that the trend reversal of the downtrend is approaching. To confirm this, it is now necessary to create a higher low. We do not have this yet, so from the perspective of Dow trend theory we are now in the gray zone. Conversely, from Figure 2, we can see that the faster EMA 50 (red) is still below SMA 100 (green), indicating a continued downtrend. The last three day candles are also bearish.

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Figure 2: GBPUSD on daily chart

The price is now at the level of support and to confirm speculation for the long side, we would like to see a growing candle on the daily chart, for example in the form of bullish engulfing.
 We plotted the Fibonacci level between the last significant low of 3/9/2019  and the last high of 20/9. On Fibonacci levels 61.8 (price level 1.22) and at 78.6 (price level 1.21), reactions often occur. It is therefore possible to wait until the price reaches these levels and enter the long trades as soon as the bull candle is formed as confirmation.
We have also drawn a potential growing channel into the chart. This is not confirmed yet, because we lack a higher low, so from this perspective it is only a hypothesis. The channel was created by joining the upper lines of the last two highs and on the lower side of the channel there is  a parallel line determined by the starting point of 3/9/2019. There is some space left to the lower line of our hypothetical channel to the above-mentioned level 1.22 at Fibonacci level 61.8.
If resistance on the moving average of SMA100 is significantly exceeded, there will be space for further strengthening. Otherwise, if a significant level of support breaks at a level around 1.20, another strong decline could occur.
 
Rezistence 1 is on the level around 1.250- 1.2570. 
Rezistence 2 is on the level around 1.2750 – 1.2850.  There is a confluence here with Fibonacci level 61.8 and a resistance that developed on  17.5.2019 by breaking of previous support, see figure 1. 
Support 1 is in the zone 1.2280-1.2330.
Support 2 lies in the area 1.20 – 1.2050.   

Should the United Kingdom agree with the EU on the revised Brexit Agreement, this currency pair could be expected to continue to strengthen sharply.


What can we expect this week?

From a political perspective, voices are beginning to emerge to  vote of no confidence of the Johnson government. This vote could take place this week. If this vote were successful, a new transitional government would emerge and at the same time it would be another step that would greatly reduce the likelihood of no deal Brexit.
From a macroeconomic point of view, House price index and the UK GDP will be reported early this week. Important PMI data, the Purchasing Managers' Index, in manufacturing, construction and services  sector will also be released during the week. The latest data of this index suggested rather a contraction of economic activity in the UK.
On Friday data will be reported in the US on the development of employment, the so-called NFP (non farm payrolls). This indicator has a big impact on pairs with USD, so it will also affect GBPUSD.


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