Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/10/2021

Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 3,100 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 4,700 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,600 contracts.

The total net speculator positions in the USD index are the highest since October 2019. Speculator positions in the USD have risen for 16 of the last 17 weeks.

Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc.

Declines in total net positions occurred in the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar.

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.
 

	15/10/2021	8/10/2021	1/10/2021	24/9/2021	17/9/2021	10/9/2021
USD index	35,100	32,000	26,500	25,100	24,300	21,500
EUR	-18,400	-22,300	900	12,100	27,800	26,300
GBP	-12,000	-20,000	2,000	-200	4,800	-24,500
AUD	-87,600	-90,000	-86,400	-85,600	-83,400	-70,500
NZD	8,700	8,100	10,200	8,100	6,200	3,900
CAD	-27,900	-26,900	-20,200	-27,900	-9,300	-6,000
CHF	-13,000	-15,700	-11,600	-9,200	-5,900	200
JPY	-76,600	-63,700	-64,800	-56,100	-60,300	-62,300

_{Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators}

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

Euro

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
15/10/2021	1,700	3,900	5,700	1,800	Weakening bullish
8/10/2021	25,500	-23,200	1,800	25,000	Bearish
1/10/2021	4,500	-11,200	5,700	16,900	Weakening bullish

 

Total net speculator positions rose by 3,900 contracts last week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,700 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,8000 contracts. Total net speculator positions are negative at -18,400 contracts.

The euro continues to move in a downtrend. According to the daily chart, the price of the euro has reached the resistance zone around 1.1600.

Long-term resistance: 1.1600 - 1.1620

Long-term support: 1.1350 - 1.1500

 

The British Pound

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
15/10/2021	-9,500	8,000	-1,400	9,400	Weakening bearish
8/10/2021	10,600	-22,000	-9,800	12,200	Bearish
1/10/2021	11,900	2,200	6,000	3,800	Bullish

 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators rose by 8,000 contracts. The change in total net positions over the past week is the result of a decrease in long positions of 1,400 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 9,400 contracts.
 

The pound is falling and reached a resistance around 1.3700.
 

Long-term resistance: 1.3740-1.3770

Long-term support: 1.3350-1.3400

 

 

The australian dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
15/10/2021	-10,800	2,400	-6,200	-8,600	Weakening bearish
8/10/2021	7,800	3,600	-900	2,700	Bearish
1/10/2021	-4,600	-800	-6,300	-5,500	Bearish

 

 

The New Zealand dollar

 

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
15/10/2021	1,500	600	2,500	1,900	Bullish
8/10/2021	2,200	-2,100	-400	1,700	Weakening bullish
1/10/2021	-3,000	2,100	-1,400	-3,500	Bullish

Last week, total net positions rose by 600 contracts. The change in total net positions is the result of an increase in long positions by 2,500 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,900 contracts. 
 

The New Zealand dollar strengthened last week and reached the 0.7100 resistance. At the same time, the price is at the declining upper trend line, which confirms the downtrend.
 

Resistance: 0.7060-0.7100

Long term support: 0.6850-0.6860